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Narratives are powerful.  Most people like to be told a story that makes sense and sounds good. 

This past weekend the second leg of the Triple Crown was completed.  I watched the telecast on NBC.  There were 9 horses entered into the race and each had a wonderful back story; could a girl beat the boys? would Epicenter redeem himself? could a longshot defy the odds?  

Before the race, the commentators on NBC each chose who they thought would win.  Out of 8 or so guesses, not one picked the winner.  Each commentator told a story based off of a narrative why they thought their pick would prevail.  Instead of thinking about the odds and possible outcomes, narratives overtook reason. 

In life, it is really hard to separate the truth from a powerful narrative.    Maybe next time, ask the question:  Is that certain in this case?

This post is for informational purposes only.  Please contact your financial advisor for investment advice.